The Trump administration is no stranger to scrutiny when it comes to its tariff agenda—but that is unlikely to stop it from pressing forward with new duties, perhaps in the coming days.
Importers should expect to see the results of the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) Section 301 investigation into industrial excess capacity sometime in August, according to trade lawyers at Tampa, Fla.-based Holland & Knight LLP.
During a webinar on Thursday, legal experts urged importers to stay abreast of the potential (read: probable) new duties and to engage in the public comment process when the results of the Section 301 investigation are released.
“We think the proposal from USTR on tariffs will likely come out within the month, and then, allowing for some time for the stakeholder engagement process, I would expect to see final Section 301 overcapacity tariffs maybe in two and a half, perhaps closer to three, months,” said law firm partner Patrick Childress. “So toward the end of the year is what I would be targeting in terms of timeline there.”
And according to Childress, importers should take heed: “These tariffs are going to remain in place for the long term,” he believes. “We’re looking at a duration of years, not months.”
The overcapacity tariffs, like the Section 301 duties levied on July 24 targeting countries that the USTR said failed to impose or effectively enforce bans on imports made with forced labor, will have been developed through a unique investigatory process that yields “durable” results, Childress said.
The probe focuses on 16 global economies that the USTR alleges have maintained excess manufacturing capacity that exceeds their domestic needs, contributing to a persistent trade imbalance with the U.S. Section 301 investigations are country-specific, and the associated tariffs are highly adjustable, with no cap or limit on duration, like the Section 122 duties that recently expired.
“This makes Section 301 tariffs a very important tool that the administration can use for leverage as it continues to negotiate with trading partners on various trade issues,” Childress said.
The result of months of research and exploration, Section 301 tariffs, which are imposed by the USTR, not by executive order, tend to stick around, he added, pointing to the duties imposed on China during Trump’s first term. Those duties remained in place through President Joe Biden’s administration, and were even expanded upon.
“We think the Section 301 overcapacity tariffs are going to vary by country,” the lawyer added—and the law firm has theories on how high they expect them to go. “If we include both the Section 301 forced labor tariffs that are in in place now plus the Section 301 overcapacity tariffs that we expect to come online in the coming weeks, we think that in the aggregate… trading partners are going to get back very close to the pre-Supreme Court decision IEEPA tariff levels,” he said.
The administration has made no bones about its intent, with cabinet officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying repeatedly in recent months that he believes the overall tariff rate will bounce back through the use of other trade statutes.
So what should importers do in the near term?
“I think it’s important to take advantage of the any temporarily low tariff rates,” Holland & Knight senior policy advisor Peter Tabor said. This involves studying tariff schedules and determining advantages related to stockpiling or making major purchases sooner. “The expectation is that there will be proposed tariffs—they could be somewhat hefty,” he said.
Additionally, Tabor urged importers to consider participating in the trade action. “USTR does plan to have the same type of process—that is, they’ve already met their requirements with respect to consultations with the target countries… they’re going to issue their investigation findings, they’re going to propose remedies, which would be tariffs on goods from the countries, and they’re going to solicit comments on their proposed plan of action,” he said.
Companies that expect to be impacted by the tariffs should be ready to submit comments and request to testify at the hearings in Washington to make their voices heard, he said.
