What’s happening at the French Open? Tennis-watchers became unmoored yesterday when world number-one Jannik Sinner—as close to a shoo-in to win this, the last major he’d need to complete a career slam, as any player in recent history, given that Carlos Alcaraz is injured—wilted badly in the heat, losing in five sets to Juan Manuel Cerundolo of Argentina, ranked 56th in the world. But while it’s always a shame to lose the world’s best player on one of its biggest stages, Sinner’s absence from the rest of the tournament opens up fascinating possibilities—and clears the way for what could be a historic final.
First (obvious) things first: this doesn’t make it any easier for Novak Djokovic (seeded third here) to reach the final. Sinner and Djokovic were on opposite halves of the draw, so Novak will still likely have to make his way past second-seeded Alexander Zverev, 15th seed Casper Ruud, or eighth-seeded Alex de Minaur to have a chance at his 25th grand slam. First up for him, though, is 28th seed Joao Fonseca, whom he’s playing this morning in a match many are billing as a possibly generational moment. Fonseca grew up playing on clay in Brazil, and at his best is capable of beating almost anyone. Whether that’s enough to get past the sport’s master of strategy and cunning—who, at 39, can still run opponents ragged around the heat-soaked courts—is still to be seen. (We’ll be watching.)
As for that heat: It’s but one of the impediments that have seen some carnage in the first weeks’ matches. The American upstart Hailey Baptiste sustained ACL and meniscus injuries that will keep her away from the sport for six or so months; the Turkish player Zeynep Sönmez and Belgian Alexander Blockx both had to retire from the tournament after separate incidents in which they stepped on advertising blocks placed on the court; the Czech player Jakub Mensik won his second-round match in five grueling sets—but cramped so badly after match point that he couldn’t get up from the court and had to be taken away in a wheelchair. (He’s playing de Minaur now in what should be a lively match; Ruud, meanwhile, plays American Tommy Paul shortly in another matchup with great potential; while early tomorrow morning sees the American prodigy Learner Tien square off against Italy’s Flavio Cobolli for a spot in the fourth round.)
On the women’s side, both third-seeded Iga Swiatek and 15th-seeded Marta Kostyuk (who’s been on a career-high roll lately, particularly on clay) made easy work of their third-round matches and face each other Sunday, while tomorrow sees a powerful lineup of matches we’ll be keeping an eye on: 17th-ranked American Iva Jovic, clearly on her way up the rankings, vs. 16th ranked Naomi Osaka; world number-one Aryna Sabalenka vs. Daria Kasatkina; ninth-ranked Victoria Mboko (in the news yesterday for her supposed pairing with a returning Serena Williams for doubles at the Wimbledon warm-up tournament at the Queens Club) vs. 19th ranked American Madison Keys, who’s been capable of some runs into the latter stages lately; and fourth-seeded Coco Gauff vs. Anastasia Potapova.
All in all, it should be an amazing weekend of tennis—though the temperatures that have wreaked havoc on a few players are, if anything, expected to get even worse, reaching around 94 degrees today, 92 tomorrow. (For comparison, the match that Sinner suffered through started at around 84 degrees and peaked at around 90.)
As for the big question: no, we don’t know who’s going to win it all now. But whoever wins the semi from the bottom half of the men’s draw (let’s go out on a limb and say this will be Zverev vs. Djokovic) would seem to have an easy final. We’ll call it for Zverev—one of the best players of his era to not yet have a slam in his pocket. On the women’s side, well: Would you bet against Sabalenka? She’s got a stacked draw, though, and would potentially have to beat Coco, Jovic or Osaka, and Mboko to get to the final. On the other side of the draw: Swiatek, Kostyuk—and the eternal wild-card possibility of eighth-seeded Mirra Andreeva, provided she can channel her intensity into results.
