Recent Price Movement
Most cotton benchmarks fell over the past month.
- Prices for the nearby July NY/ICE futures contract set a peak near 88 cents/lb on May 11. Since then, values retreated as low as 71 cents/lb (June 10). In the latest trading, there was a slight recovery to 72 cents.
- Open interest has already migrated out of July and into the December NY/ICE contract. Prices for December followed the same pattern as July, with a peak near 88 cents/lb set on May 11. In later trading the retreat in value for December was not as deep, with the recent low set around 75 cents/lb. There has also been a slight recovery in the latest trading, with current prices near 76 cents.
- The A Index dropped from 95 to 84 cents/lb over the past month.
- The CC (China Cotton) Index 3128B decreased from 121 to 116 cents/lb or from 18,200 to 17,400 RMB/ton. The RMB traded between 6.80 and 6.76 RMB/USD.
- Indian prices decreased from 88 to 82 cents/lb or from 65,800 to 61,000 INR/candy. The INR traded around 95 INR/USD.
- Contrary to the losses in other markets, Pakistani prices held steady near 94 cents/lb or 21,500 PKR/maund over the past month. The PKR consistently traded around 278 PKR/USD.
Supply, Demand & Trade
The June USDA report included little to no change to 2026/27 figures for global production (no change at the world level, forecast holding at 116.0 million bales) and mill use (+75,000 bales to 121.8 million). Revisions to historical estimates lowered the number for beginning stocks in the upcoming crop year (-636,000 bales to 76.6 million bales). This drove most of the change in the projection for 2026/27 ending stocks (-711,000 bales to 71.1 million).
The current prediction for 2026/27 stocks implies a -5.5 million bale reduction in warehoused supply year-over-year. At 71.1 million bales, the current estimate suggests a volume of global stocks near the level from 2021/22 (71.2 million bales) and a stocks-to-use ratio near the value from 2020/21 (58.4 percent). Both the volume of stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are on the lower end of what has been common over the past 10 years (excluding 2019/20, stocks ranged between 71 and 77 million bales and the stocks-to-use ranged between 58 percent and 65 percent over the past decade).
At the country level, there were no changes over 100,000 bales for 2025/26 or 2026/27 production. For mill use, there were several updates. Revisions for 2025/26 included those for Pakistan (-300,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-200,000 bales to 7.6 million), and China (+500,000 bales to 41.0 million). Revisions for 2026/27 included those for Bangladesh (-200,000 bales to 7.8 million), Pakistan (-200,000 bales to 10.2 million), and China (+500,000 bales to 41.5 million).
Global trade figures for 2025/26 and 2026/27 were virtually unchanged (-25,000 bales for both crop years, to 43.8 million for 2025/26 and to 43.3 million for 2026/27).
For imports, the largest updates to 2025/26 forecasts were for Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 7.4 million), Pakistan (-300,000 bales to 4.5 million), India (+100,000 bales to 4.3 million), and China (+400,000 bales to 7.0 million). The largest updates to 2026/27 forecasted imports were for Pakistan (-300,000 bales to 5.0 million), Bangladesh (-200,000 bales to 7.6 million), and India (+500,000 bales to 2.5 million).
For 2025/26 exports, the estimates for Brazilian (+300,000 bales to 15.0 million) and U.S. shipments increased (+200,000 bales to 12.2 million). There were no updates to 2026/27 export figures of 100,000 bales or more.
Price Outlook
Apart from Pakistan, there has been a global retreat from the higher values that were posted almost exactly one month ago. The upward movement in prices was unequal across markets.
Chinese prices began rising the first, starting their climb in December. Between December and mid-May, the CC Index increased from around 95 to 120 cents/lb (+25 cents/lb).
NY/ICE futures did not begin to rise until mid-to-late February and climbed from levels around 65 to 88 cents/lb (+23 cents/lb).
Indian prices rose even later, starting in late March and increasing from 75 to 90 cents/lb (+15 cents/lb).
Pakistani prices did not change until early April, but surged significantly higher, jumping from levels near 70 to over 90 cents/lb by the start of May (+20 cents/lb).
In more recent trading, NY/ICE futures have given up the most value, dropping from the high of 88 to 76 cents/lb (-12 cents/lb, values for the December contract). Indian prices have given up about -10 cents/lb. The CC Index has eased about -5 cents. Pakistani prices have not declined and remain over 90 cents/lb. If maintained, price differentials could encourage trade flows.
The weather could be a partial reason for some of the reversal in price direction. There has been more moisture through Texas and the Mid-South growing region in the U.S. There has been some concern about light monsoon in India, but there also may be a realization that it might not be dry enough to dramatically affect yields.
Another factor that may have contributed to the turnaround in prices could simply be that values rose too far too fast. This may be reflected in speculator positions. In October 2025, a new record was set for speculator net short position (89,000 contracts, futures plus options). By early May, that position had swung to a stronger net-long position (90,000 contracts) than was held the last time that prices climbed over a dollar (early 2024). The steepest period of change was between the mid-to-late February and early May, which corresponded to the increases in NY/ICE futures prices.
In the latest data available (May ’26), speculators’ net position was around 80,000 contracts near long. While the weather can be expected to continue to change expectations around production, there may be larger questions about the outlook for the demand side of the balance sheet. A potential concern could be that higher energy costs could pinch consumer spending for more discretionary categories like clothing.
Jon Devine, senior economist at Cotton Incorporated, keeps key stakeholders in the textile and investment communities informed via timely market analyses of commodity economics and factors influencing their stability. He generates industry analyses of the various links on the cotton supply chain, contributing to the division’s examinations and reports on consumer and retail trends relevant to cotton textile and apparel sectors.
For more economic, information about the cotton market, as well as manufacturing insights, sourcing intel and sustainability content, visit Cotton Incorporated’s CottonWorks.
