Inbound cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to reach an all-time record this month, driven by retailers stocking up for the back-to-school season and ahead of expected tariff increases.
According to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, top U.S. ports are forecast to handle 2.47 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July.
This would be a 3.3 percent increase from last year and would top the previous monthly record of 2.4 million TEUs set in May 2022, driven by robust post-pandemic consumer spending.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers and other importers prepare for potentially higher tariffs beginning in August and other trade uncertainties,” said Jonathan Gold vice president for supply chain and customs policy of NRF.
The temporary 10 percent Section 122 global tariffs that took effect in February are set to expire July 24, but a new round of Section 301 duties regarding forced labor are expected to be imposed by the Trump administration on 60 trading partners as early as August.
“The busy back-to-school selling season has already started, and the winter holidays won’t be far behind, so retailers have been working to get products into the U.S. and ready to go before new tariffs can potentially drive prices higher,” Gold said in a statement. “Despite ongoing economic headwinds, consumers are continuing to spend, but affordability is a key factor affecting their spending habits.”
Gold also acknowledged the impacts from the war in Iran, which resulted in constricted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sent oil prices soaring in the spring months. Importers sought to get products on ships ahead of additional monthly fuel adjustments that kicked in July 1.
The May through July numbers are expected to be the highest of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker, deviating from the traditional peak shipping season that historically lasted from August to October.
In recent years, the season has shifted around amid reasons ranging from port labor disputes to last year’s various shifts in tariff policies, which forced shippers to delay or suspend and restart bookings into the U.S.
But in 2026, the early season has also coincided with retail’s need to replenish their shelves amid leaner-than-usual inventories. U.S. retail’s inventories-to-sales ratio fell to 1.26 in April, the lowest since February 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
U.S. ports handled 2.24 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up 14.9 percent from a year earlier, when ocean-borne imports were down sharply because of the “Liberation Day” tariffs. On a month-over month basis, May’s inbound cargo volumes jumped 10.1 percent from April figures.
Ports have not yet reported June numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.33 million TEUs, up 18.7 percent year over year. That would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEUs, up 2 percent from the six-month period to kick off 2025.
“Over the first six months of the year, aggregated U.S. containerized imports showed little variance compared to the same period last year,” said Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at supply chain technology provider Descartes.
In its monthly Global Shipping Report, Descartes marked slower annual growth for the top 10 U.S. ports in June, calculating the imports at 2.4 million TEUs, up 8.2 percent from the year prior. When breaking out by country, cargo from China powered the wider growth from last year’s tariff-driven troughs, increasing 27.4 percent year-over-year to 814,474 TEUs in June.
After July, the import push is set to cool down. Inbound cargo volumes are expected to drop to 2.22 million TEUs in August, down 4.5 percent year over year. September is forecast or an annual decline of 5.7 percent to 1.99 million TEUs.
The dips will continue for the remaining two months, according to NRF and Hackett. October’s cargo numbers are anticipated to decrease 3.8 percent to 1.99 million TEUs, while November’s expected throughput stands at 1.92 million TEUs, down 5.2 percent.
Descartes’ Wood noted that the broader trade environment remains unsettled.
“However, as we head into the second half of 2026, global trade continues to face high levels of volatility from Middle East maritime risk, elevated tariff uncertainty, new Panama Canal draft restrictions and ongoing Red Sea disruption,” Wood said. “For U.S. importers, sourcing diversification, landed cost visibility and risk mitigation remain key strategies to manage in this environment.”
For the longer term, Wood recommends shippers to reevaluate sourcing and supplier concentration strategies to reduce reliance on high-risk or overexposed trade lanes, as the increasing geopolitical fragmentation and trade policy volatility reinforce the need for diversified, flexible supply chain networks.
